The unemployment rate is further revised down, indicating that the job market continues to improve, and it is expected to reach the maximum employment target next year: 4.3% (original: 4.8%), 3.5% (original: 3.8%), 3.5% (original: 3.5%), 3.5 % (original: 3.5%). The PCE was further revised upwards, and the impact of inflation driven by the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to continue into next year: 5.3% (original: 4.2%), 2.6% (original: 2.2%), 2.3% (original: 2.2%), 2.1% ( original: 2.1%). The core PCE is further revised upward, and it will still be higher than the medium and long-term target next year: 4.4% (original: 3.7%), 2.7% (original: 2.3%), 2.3% (original: 2.2%), 2.1% (original: 2.2%) .
The policy interest rate will be significantly increased in 2022 and 2023, conveying a signal of accelerated rate hike in the next year: 0.1% (original: 0.1%), 0.9% (original: 0.3%), 1.6% (original: 1%), 2.1% (original: 0.1%) : 1.8%). image3 Photo Credit: Finance M Squared In whatsapp list the part of the interest rate dot plot that the market is most concerned about this time, all members of the committee believe that the interest rate should be raised next year, and the median jumped to 3 yards, and the median also increased further in 2023-24. Rate hike 3 yards, 2 yards in 2024.
After observing the meeting, the probability of FedWatch raising interest rates by 3 yards by the end of next year has not increased significantly, but it can be found that the probability of interest rate hike in March next year has risen sharply to 43% from 31% before the meeting, and the short-term interest rate dot plot will further increase to 4 yards. High (at least 7 members are required to be raised), but it is still recommended to continue to pay attention to future market expectations and whether there is a chance for further increase. image2 Photo Credit: Finance M Squared .